ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders

Olalekan Ogunbiyi; Emmanuel Audu; Lambe Adesina

doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

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NJEAS. 2026; 3(2):

doi: 10.5455/NJEAS.319921

ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders

Olalekan Ogunbiyi, Emmanuel Audu, Lambe Adesina.

Abstract
Technical losses significantly affect the efficiency and reliability of medium-voltage distribution networks in Nigeria. This study presents an ANN-based electro-thermal framework for analysing and predicting technical losses using 5,544 hourly operational data points from a distribution feeder modelled on the IEEE 33-bus system. Results indicate an average load of 49.97 MW with a peak of 103.30 MW, while technical losses average 2.26 MW and reach a maximum of 4.68 MW. The system exhibits a stable loss factor of 0.045 p.u (4.53%), confirming a strong proportional relationship between load and losses. Loss decomposition reveals a near-balanced contribution, with line losses accounting for 48.31% and transformer losses 43.89%, deviating from the conventional dominance of line losses. Electro-thermal analysis shows a relatively modest temperature influence, with loss variation ranging from −1.92% to 3.80% (average 0.84%). Approximately 18.58% of system operation occurs under high-loss conditions, where losses increase to an average of 3.69 MW. The ANN model achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.90% and R² of 0.9379, demonstrating good predictive capability. Annual energy loss is estimated at 12,550.38 MWh, corresponding to a cost of ₦1.255 billion. The proposed framework enhances loss visibility and supports data-driven monitoring, planning, and operational optimisation in distribution networks.

Key words: Technical losses; Artificial Neural Network (ANN); Electro-thermal modelling; Distribution systems; Loss prediction; Power system efficiency; Smart monitoring

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Pubmed Style

Ogunbiyi O, Audu E, Adesina L. ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders. NJEAS. 2026; 3(2): -. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

Web Style

Ogunbiyi O, Audu E, Adesina L. ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders. https:///?mno=319921 [Access: August 25, 2026]. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Ogunbiyi O, Audu E, Adesina L. ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders. NJEAS. 2026; 3(2): -. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Ogunbiyi O, Audu E, Adesina L. ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders. NJEAS. (2026), [cited August 25, 2026]; 3(2): -. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

Harvard Style

Ogunbiyi, O., Audu, . E. & Adesina, . L. (2026) ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders. NJEAS, 3 (2), -. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

Turabian Style

Ogunbiyi, Olalekan, Emmanuel Audu, and Lambe Adesina. 2026. ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders. Nile Journal of Engineering and Applied Science, 3 (2), -. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

Chicago Style

Ogunbiyi, Olalekan, Emmanuel Audu, and Lambe Adesina. "ANN-based Electro-thermal Modelling for Technical Loss Analysis and Prediction In Nigerian Medium-voltage Distribution Feeders." Nile Journal of Engineering and Applied Science 3 (2026), -. doi:10.5455/NJEAS.319921

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About Nile Journal of Engineering and Applied Science The Nile Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences publishes original peer-reviewed articles on fundamental and applied research and reviews ... Read more. For best results, please use Internet Explorer or Google Chrome.	Contact Information 1. Prof. Abdulhameed Danjuma Mambo Editor-in-Chief abdulhameed.mambo@nileuniversity.edu.ng 2. Dr. Adekunle Adeleke Associate Editor-in-Chief adekunle.adeleke@nileuniversity.edu.ng 3. Dr. Ifeyinwa Obianyo Managing Editor ifeyinwa.obianyo@nileuniversity.edu.ng